It’s about time for a weblog put up! I’ve been very busy the previous few weeks; conferences, college visits, new climate branding (extra on that beneath), and dealing on graphics. Plus we’ve added a while to our night broadcasts, so…actual busy. I strongly advocate you comply with me on Fb @marknelsenweather and Twitter @marknelsenKPTV as a result of I recurrently put up on these platforms. Loads of maps, fashions, and ideas once I’m engaged on these websites. Running a blog takes fairly a bit longer, I want chunk of quiet time to do that…my children would say that’s “as a result of I’m a boomer”. No matter.
QUICK RECAP OF RECENT WEEKS
October DID find yourself as Portland’s warmest on file, as did September, and August. All 3 had been Portland’s warmest. In fact August was additionally the most popular of ANY month. We ended up with 12 days at/above 80 levels (yellow outlines beneath) and even with the sharp change to cooler/moist the final 10 days of the month we STILL ended up about 6 levels above common!
I had some folks ask me both on social media or e mail if “the rain will ever come again this winter”. Most probably new transplants; the rain ALWAYS COMES BACK. And that occurred in late October. That’s why I considerably ignored people who had been complaining concerning the 4 months of primarily dry climate. Sure, fires had been beginning to decide up once more after the showers in late September, however we prevented an enormous east wind episode that might have led to a number of hassle. We ended up with near regular rain by Halloween night. And sorry about that Halloween soaker; these have been uncommon recently
The cooler climate and plenty of rain hasn’t shocked me in any respect. However now it seems we’re headed towards a lot cooler than regular climate subsequent week. If fashions are appropriate, this can find yourself being probably the most dramatic change I’ve seen within the fall; from 80s to highs within the 40s (or colder?) in only a few weeks.
Tonight we’ve received an atmospheric river organising throughout the area. That’s because of a powerful westerly jet stream approaching the shoreline. That is the view from jetliner altitude tomorrow…about 30,000′ or so
Then Saturday…a 200 mph jet stream proper over us!
Then by Monday a deep upper-level trough has dipped south out of Canada and is simply offshore. That’s chilly. So we get a number of rain via tomorrow night time, then showers Saturday, a colder/moist system Sunday, then again to scattered (even colder!) showers Monday.
How a lot rain? Fashions have backed off simply barely the previous 24 hours. This might be primarily a “nuisance” rainfall within the lowlands, particularly south and west of Portland. A group of mannequin forecasts
And the best decision mannequin accessible to native meteorologists; the UW 1.33 km WRF-GFS (from the Huskies in fact!). You may clearly see a really sharp rain shadow within the lee of the Coast Vary. Lower than 1″ round Hillsboro tomorrow, however as much as 2.50″ central/east metro areas. I might see some water over just a few roads if we do get 2.00″ or extra in spots. Heaviest rain might be within the night.
One other view of the heavier rain within the aptly named “Waterfall Hall” within the Gorge.
A gusty southerly wind will accompany the atmospheric river/pineapple specific tomorrow. That’s regular for these occasions and on this case it gained’t be TOO robust. I feel gusts 30-40 mph are doubtless in just a few spots anytime tomorrow. Wind will come and go all day, however ought to be strongest within the night simply earlier than the chilly entrance passes via between 8-11pm. Usually that may simply give us some remoted outages, however there’s a complication this time. You’ve most likely observed leaves have been very sluggish to alter or drop off this yr, as a result of file heat 1st half of fall. So we’ve received a bunch of additional “wind-catchers” on the bushes and I can see that including to the outage depend tomorrow. Regardless, particularly if you’re in a rural space, remember the facility COULD go off in your neighborhood tomorrow.
FOX12 FIRST ALERT WEATHER
For over 15 years at FOX12 we’ve used the branding “First Stay Native” for our climate forecasts. It’s been time for a change for fairly awhile, plus we are actually a part of the Gray Corporation. It’s good working for an organization that owns a number of TV stations and is aware of what it’s doing. So, we’ve taken on the First Alert Climate branding that the majority different Grey stations use. And I feel it’s change. I’ll admit that typically I get a bit misplaced within the “meteorological weeds” throughout a weathercast and this can assist focus issues a bit extra with most vital data proper up entrance. Apparently you’ll be able to educate an outdated canine new tips…
When a selected day exhibits up that basically stands proud weatherwise (tomorrow?) we’ll draw your consideration to it by marking it as a “First Alert Climate Day”. If we do it proper, these ought to be days by which climate will considerably disrupt your plans or day. Tomorrow is a bit marginal for that; we’ll see what number of outages we get and whether or not native flooding exhibits up in spots. We’ve particularly prevented utilizing the phrases WATCH, WARNING, or ADVISORY as a result of these are utilized by the Nationwide Climate Service. That is NOT a alternative for these official watches/warnings/advisories! You may be taught a bit extra from this 2 minute video: https://www.kptv.com/2022/11/02/first-alert-weather-new-way-stay-ahead-weather/
COLDER WEATHER AHEAD
That cool upper-level trough I discussed earlier drops down alongside the West Coast and sits there Monday via Wednesday. 850mb temps backside out round -4 to -6 C throughout that point; unusually chilly for early November. Usually that’s round 1,500′ to 2,000′ snow ranges. That’s with onshore move. However throughout that point subsequent week, we get a cool north or northeast wind as a chilly arctic excessive stress space might be sitting over SW Canada.
The low stage airmass can even be unusually chilly, together with north of us. Right here’s a Wednesday morning forecast temperature map; remember something beneath about -17 (C) on this map is 0 (F). Very uncommon to have temps round zero levels in early November simply north of the U.S. border.
With that chilly air filtering south, snow ranges COULD dip all the way in which to sea stage. However on the identical time it seems we’ll doubtless be dry from late Monday via at the least Wednesday subsequent week. So I’m pondering sticking snow right down to sea stage is unlikely Monday via Wednesday. It’s a bit too heat nonetheless Monday morning, however then when it WILL be chilly sufficient Tuesday/Wednesday we’ll most likely dry out. Now later subsequent week, we might see moisture return. Every mannequin is totally different with timing so we’ll see what occurs. Keep in mind that it IS attainable to get snow or freezing rain as we head into mid-November. In 2014 freezing rain made it all the way into the central part of the metro area on the 13th!
That’s it for now. Our forecast appears to be like like this…with excessive temperatures 10-15 levels beneath regular Monday-Thursday subsequent week. Keep Tuned!
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