Georgia Reside Running a blog #2 – TPM – Speaking Factors Memo

9:36 PM: Okay, the person has spoken. Dave Wasserman of The Prepare dinner Report says it’s carried out: Warnock defeats Walker.

9:29 PM: I believe Warnock continues to have the within observe. The uncertainty is that we don’t know exactly the make-up of the votes in these blue counties the place a lot of votes are left. These might be closely similar day and really lean to Walker. So there’s nonetheless some uncertainty. But it surely’s a big uncertainty in an general context the place indicators actually level to a Walker win. In North Georgia Walker has put up numbers he must win. However in the remainder of the state the sample is Warnock making modest however constant features on his November totals. It could be a shock if that sample didn’t proceed in metro Atlanta. However who is aware of?

9:06 PM: Not clear to me how a lot visibility there may be into these early counts out of the Atlanta space counties into what’s election day and early. You could possibly speculate that they’ve solely counted the Warnock-leaning earlies to date and subsequent up is Walker. However I kinda doubt that. I believe that is Warnock’s except one thing wildly surprising occurs.

9:01 PM: We lastly acquired a giant chunk of the vote in in DeKalb County. Nonetheless solely round ~50% reporting. However beginning to present the numbers that put Warnock forward. At this level that is the place the remaining votes are, this and comparable counties. So though Warnock’s general lead is razor skinny it ought to develop.

8:37 PM: Have mentioned it time and again. But it surely’s nonetheless the identical. Warnock in all probability wins tonight. However we don’t have the votes in metro Atlanta. That may inform the story. Walker wants a powerful displaying in metro Atlanta, relative to expectations. Doesn’t appear probably. However run-offs are unpredictable. Simply to offer a way 5% of the vote in in DeKalb, 55% in Fulton, 53% in Gwinnett, in Cobb 23%.

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